One step away from World War III
Speaking for the first time after Sunday’s presidential election, Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to a question about the possibility of a violent conflict between Russia and the West by describing the current situation as above. Stressing that “everything is possible in the modern world,” he argued that, “It will be one step away from a full-scale third world war, but hardly anyone is interested in this.” Putin had warned before the election that his country was “technically ready for nuclear war.”
Having brought up the threat of nuclear war periodically during the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Russian leader mentioned World War III due to French President Emmanuel Macron mentioning the possibility of sending NATO troops into Ukraine. Although NATO, the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy have already rejected that idea, Macron continues to take jabs at Russia. Most recently, he said that the French army might have to stage a direct intervention if the Russian forces were to march toward Kyiv or Odesa, identifying Russia as an “adversary” and arguing that lasting peace won’t be possible without Crimea becoming a Ukrainian territory once again.
Following his most recent visit to Berlin, the French president told reporters that a ground operation to resist the Russian forces could be necessary (despite saying that he did not desire it and would not take that initiative) and claimed that “France’s strength is that we can do it.” Macron also said the following: “We must not scare ourselves. We do not face a great force. Russia is a middle power with nuclear weapons.”
The spat between Macron and Putin highlights how the Ukraine war fundamentally changed Europe’s security perception. That conflict led to the collapse of Europe’s peace-oriented approach to security as well as its economic policy, which rested on Russian energy. Accordingly, Europe is compelled to rethink its security and energy.
Although the Russian president begs to differ, many European nations overwhelmingly believe that Russia will pose a threat to European security beyond Ukraine. That is why Germany and others feel compelled to increase their defense spending.
Europe’s nightmare: Trump’s potential 2024 victory
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s potential victory in the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, in turn, represents a complete nightmare scenario for Europe. Having described NATO as an “obsolete” organization in his first term, the former president has been issuing threats on the campaign trail, pledging to encourage Russia to attack any NATO ally that fails to pay their bills.
Indeed, Macron’s most recent statements were intended to highlight France’s role in defending Europe and reassure its allies – without failing to casually mention his country’s nuclear arsenal. The French president insists that Russia must not win the Ukraine war and warns that Ukraine’s defeat would destroy Europe’s credibility. Despite economic sanctions and the influx of Western military aid into Ukraine, however, Russia remains nowhere near the “strategic defeat” that the West desperately wants it to suffer. The Russian economy, too, seems to be alright. The delivery of new and more powerful weapons to Ukraine or the deployment of Western troops, however, would make a confrontation between NATO and Russia (which Putin described as “one step away from World War III) more likely.
Amid the war of words between the Russian and French presidents, however, the possibility of peace also comes up. For example, Macron said that he would ask Russia for a cease-fire during the Summer Olympics in Paris. Putin, who used to talk about peace a little more frequently, remains skeptical, noting that he does not want a pause of 18-24 months for rearmament purposes despite favoring serious peace talks.
With the two leaders taking jabs at each other, the increasingly frequent mention of the possibility of nuclear war will continue to unsettle the international community. Having been forced to leave Africa due to Russia’s growing influence there, France tries to unite Europe around a common stance toward Russia – which is hard work. The possibility of a violent conflict with Russia intimidates European governments, yet peace does not seem to be on the table, at least until the U.S. presidential election.
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