Kadir Ustun

Executive Director

Kadir Ustun is Executive Director at the SETA Foundation at Washington DC. He holds a PhD in Middle Eastern, South Asian, and African Studies from Columbia University and a MA in History from Bilkent University. His writings have appeared in Insight Turkey, Al Jazeera English, Cairo Review of Global Affairs, Al-Monitor, Politico, Daily Sabah, Mediterranean Quarterly, Middle East Eye, and Middle East Policy. He is co-editor of edited volumes History, Politics and Foreign Policy in Turkey (2011), Change and Adaptation in Turkish Foreign Policy (2014), Politics and Foreign Policy in Turkey: Historical and Contemporary Perspectives, Trump’s Jerusalem Move: Making Sense of US Policy on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict (2020), Crimea from Regional and International Perspectives (2023).

      Follow @KadirUstun on Twitter

Latest Publications

• Is the real issue the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or the US elections?

  It’s hard to believe that the Biden administration’s letter suggesting that military aid to Israel could be halted unless humanitarian aid flows into Gaza isn’t tied to the upcoming U.S. electi..Read more

• Do hurricanes count as an October Surprise?

  In U.S. law, elections are held on the "first Tuesday following the first Monday in November," and major events occurring shortly before an election, with significant potential to sway its outcome, a..Read more

• Israel’s perpetual war strategy after October 7

  A full year ago this week, I was in Ankara for a meeting. When Hamas launched its attacks on October 7, the Palestinian issue quickly became the main agenda. It became evident that Israel was facing ..Read more

• The Significance of Erdoğan’s Emphasis on Gaza in His UN Speech

  President Erdoğan dedicating a significant portion of his UN speech to Gaza highlighted not only the importance of the Palestinian issue for Türkiye but also its central role in regional peace and ..Read more

• The UN from Washington’s Perspective and Türkiye’s Insistence on Reform

  President Biden’s final UN speech of his political career coincides with perhaps the least effective period in American diplomacy. Since October 7, the Biden administration has stood by as Israel�..Read more

• Biden’s global leadership report card after G7 summit

  When we look at the G7 summit communiqué, we see an extensive list of problems related to various crisis areas and challenges in the international system. From Ukraine to Taiwan, from artificial int..Read more

• Washington is seeking results without pressuring Israel

  While the Biden administration struggles to achieve results in the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, it is also trying to prevent the war from spreading to Lebanon. Biden announced tha..Read more

• Has the US economy achieved a soft landing?

  Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell announced at the eagerly awaited meeting, where markets awaited a signal of interest rate cuts, that they foresee a single rate cut by the end of this yea..Read more

• The rise of the right in Europe and the US presidential elections

  The European Parliament election results indicate a rise in support for center-right and far-right candidates. Pro-European Union groups, which hold the majority in the parliament, saw the biggest lo..Read more

• Hell on earth…

  "The images from last night are proof of how Rafah has turned into hell on earth." These words come from UN High Commissioner for Refugees Philippe Lazarini. I can hardly describe the hellish scenes ..Read more

• Is Biden’s effort to reach young Black voters in vain?

  President Biden visited Michigan and Georgia last weekend to strengthen support among Black voters. Winning these two swing states is crucial for Biden, and Black voters could significantly influence..Read more

• What opposing the ICC decision will cost America

  International Criminal Court (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan has requested arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant, accusing them of war crimes and crimes ..Read more

• Hamas’ acceptance of ceasefire and Israel’s Rafah operation

  Despite Hamas announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire on Monday, Israel stated that the agreement did not meet their desired level. However, they announced that they would send a delegation to Doh..Read more

• Normalization of Israel-Saudi ties under US sponsorship

  In recent days, news suggesting progress in the discussions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and approaching the stage of agreement, could herald a new era in the Middle East. Saudis are s..Read more

• The ‘tragedy’ of US policy vis-a-vis Israel

  The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran’s direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to ..Read more

• Did Biden abandon Israel at the UN General Assembly?

  The 'immediate ceasefire resolution' issued by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) due to the United States' abstention indicates that the Biden administration's political pressure on Israeli ..Read more

• Biden’s red line…

  President Biden publicly revealed his disagreement with Netanyahu over the Gaza issue in his 'red line' statement over the weekend. Biden stated that a military operation into Gaza was a red line for..Read more

• Antalya Diplomacy Forum and Türkiye’s choice

  Over the weekend, I had the opportunity to attend the Antalya Diplomacy Forum organized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The forum addressed numerous issues concerning Türkiye’s foreign policy ..Read more

• Is the American Public on Israel’s side?

  The argument that Hamas bears responsibility for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, as put forward by Israel, has not convinced the American public. Unlike previous operations and wars, Israel's attemp..Read more

• Netanyahu’s calculations and Biden’s preferences

  For the past ten days, President Biden has appeared indifferent to the gravity of the humanitarian crisis and outrage resulting from Israel's ongoing attacks. Israel's actions in Gaza, which leave ci..Read more

• Is Biden’s support for Israel unconditional or are there strings attached?

  In President Biden's upcoming visit to Israel on Wednesday, it wouldn't be surprising if he reiterates his 'unconditional' support while also placing veiled conditions on the Gaza operation. Statemen..Read more

• The role of Israel in US Middle East strategy

  Former President Trump's Middle East policy was extremely pro-Israel. Trump declared Jerusalem as Israel's capital to satisfy his evangelical base, arguing that Israel could normalize relations in th..Read more

• Is the Menendez scandal an opportunity for Turkish-American relations?

  The political dynamics within the American Congress and the activities of lobbying groups have long been significant factors negatively impacting Turkish-American relations. Since the 1970s, Congress..Read more

• The cost of America’s $6 billion prisoner exchange with Iran

  The Biden administration is careful not to create expectations regarding the prisoner exchange agreement with Iran, aiming to emphasize that such "humanitarian" efforts are separate from the nuclear ..Read more

• G20 Summit: America’s strategy in dealing with Russia and China

  The G20 summit in India provided an opportunity for Biden to strengthen his efforts to reduce China's influence. By participating in the summit, which Prime Minister Modi viewed as a significant pres..Read more

• Joe Biden: America’s ‘Last Politician’

  This week, the book "The Last Politician," authored by Franklin Foer, sheds light on President Biden's first two years in power and his approach to domestic and foreign crises. Foer, who had relative..Read more

• How the US is dealing with China’s economic hardships

  U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo focused on managing trade issues between the two countries during her four-day visit to China. Following her meeting with her Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao, Ra..Read more

• Republican candidates grapple with escaping the shadow of Trump

  The candidates competing to clinch the Republican Party's nominee for the 2024 presidential election faced the voters in the first debate of the primary season on Wednesday night. Former President Tr..Read more

• Signs of American support fatigue for Ukraine

  President Biden is preparing to request an additional budget of $24 billion for Ukraine. If Congress approves this budget, the total aid provided by the United States to Ukraine since the beginning o..Read more

• The limits of US-China economic rivalry

  The intense global economic rivalry between the US and China is leading to a fierce competition, particularly in the advanced technology sector. While Washington imposes measures to limit the export ..Read more

• Who will be the Republican Party’s candidate?

  The American presidential elections are famous for their long and extensive primary process, which takes about one and a half years to complete. During this period, candidates participate in televise..Read more

• The political toll of criticizing Israel in America

  The controversies surrounding Israeli President Herzog's speech at the U.S. Congress brought to light President Biden's and some Democrats' discomfort with the Netanyahu government. Biden had previou..Read more

• What Russia is hoping for after pulling the plug on the Ukraine grain deal

  Russia declaring the end of the grain agreement, the Prigozhin uprising, and the post-Vilnius Summit show that it wants the cards to be reshuffled. The Prigozhin uprising exposed weaknesses and rifts..Read more

• Is Türkiye reorienting itself towards the West?

  It cannot be said that the efforts of Turkish foreign policy to open up space for itself through pragmatic steps in line with regional and global balances are adequately understood. Analyzes that dep..Read more

• What is required for the Vilnius Summit to be successful?

  The Vilnius Summit is taking place at a time when the NATO alliance is beginning to overcome the strategic ambiguity it has experienced since the Cold War. Following the United States' declaration of..Read more

• The debate over social media and freedom of speech in US politics

  The preliminary injunction issued by a federal judge in the lawsuit brought by the attorneys general of Louisiana and Missouri against the Biden administration has sparked a new debate on freedom of ..Read more

• Does Washington really want Putin to go?

  Last weekend's historic events in Russia have sparked discussions on the role and preferences of the United States and its allies. The main motivation of Prigozhin, one of Putin's closest associates,..Read more

• The heavy toll of the Ukraine invasion

  The Wagner Group's weekend mutiny highlighted the heavy cost of the Ukraine occupation for Russia and the worsening state of the war. The group's leader, Prigozhin, had previously shared videos revea..Read more

• Neither with nor without China…

  The Biden administration is struggling to formulate a comprehensive and effective China policy. While the Trump era saw constant pressure on China, attempting to limit its sphere of influence, the Bi..Read more

• Trump indictment an ‘uncharted territory’ in American politics

  The federal lawsuit against former President Trump marks a significant turning point in American political history. The investigation into classified documents related to Trump resulted in him being ..Read more

• Is the Ukraine War coming to an end?

  The Ukrainian forces are launching a counteroffensive, aiming to achieve a decisive result and bring an end to the Russian occupation. However, due to their lack of air superiority, they risk sufferi..Read more

• The binary outcome of upcoming US elections: Trump wins, or Trumpism prevails

  The Republican Party's primary elections are still far away, but candidates other than Trump are formalizing their candidacies. Well-known figures such as Haley, DeSantis, Pence, and Christie will tr..Read more

• Erdogan’s election victory: a new era in Turkish foreign policy

  President Erdogan's election victory represents a significant turning point in Türkiye's foreign policy. Thanks to this success, Erdogan will have the chance to solidify Türkiye's foreign policy ga..Read more

• Türkiye’s Policy toward Sweden’s Accession to NATO

  Kadir Ustun, the Executive Director of SETA DC, was featured on Al Jazeera, where he discussed Türkiye's stance on Sweden's bid to join NATO. The discussion revolves around Türkiye's dissatisfactio..Read more

• Crimea: From Regional and International Perspectives

  View the Sample Buy Ebook on Google Books We hope that this edited volume will provide the audiences with an informed perspective about the significance of the Russian invasion and anne..Read more

• G-7’s Support for Zelenskyy: A Deterrent effect on Russia

  The participation of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the G-7 summit in Hiroshima holds significant symbolic importance. The choice of Hiroshima sends a message of a nuclear-free world, while Zelensk..Read more

• The outlook for Türkiye’s foreign policy post-election

  We experienced another historic night on May 14. The number of votes President Erdoğan received, surpassing 27 million, represents the highest vote count ever recorded. Despite the theories that 5 m..Read more

• Türkiye’s upcoming election and the future of foreign policy

  Türkiye will hold a historic election that could influence both regional and global power balances. Under the leadership of President Erdogan over the past 20 years, Türkiye has faced significant c..Read more

• DeSantis takes on Mickey Mouse: What’s at stake?

  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, seen as one of Trump's most serious challengers, has been locked in a battle with Disney for over a year now. Disney, which has operated in Orlando with a special statu..Read more

• Assessing Western aid to Ukraine: how far can it go?

  One of the prominent themes in the leaked secret documents from military and intelligence agencies was America's concern about Ukraine's war capacity. It had been reported in the press that the neces..Read more

• F-16 sale to Türkiye: can US ‘goodwill’ message break the impasse?

  The Biden administration has taken a symbolic yet significant step regarding the F-16 issue. Türkiye officially submitted a request to purchase a total of 40 F-16s and 79 F-16 upgrade kits worth $20..Read more

• Macron’s China trip and strategic autonomy

  French President Emmanuel Macron's statements after his visit to China, where he was received with state ceremonies, regarding Europe's need to reduce its dependency on the U.S. and not take sides in..Read more

• America’s fascination with guns

  The recent school shooting in Nashville, which resulted in the deaths of three children and three adults, has reignited the gun control debate. According to 2017 data, the United States is the world ..Read more

• Biden uneasy with Netanyahu after rare public spat

  U.S. President Joe Biden, who has been one of the most supportive politicians towards Israel throughout his political career, recently had to openly express his displeasure with Netanyahu after tryin..Read more

• The debate over normalization with the Assad regime in Washington

  The Syrian regime is using earthquake diplomacy to gain more legitimacy and accelerate the normalization process in the region. Following the earthquake, Egyptian Foreign Minister Shukri met with Ass..Read more

• Thoughts on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

  Recent fears of a new financial crisis in the US have been alleviated for now, though they reached their peak due to the supply chain crisis brought on by the pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ..Read more

• Where do things currently stand on Turkish-American ties?

  The meetings held by the Turkish delegation during their visit to Washington earlier this week once again showed how necessary constant dialogue is due to the busy agenda of Turkish-American relation..Read more

• Thoughts on the G20 final declaration fiasco

  At the end of the G-20 Foreign Ministers' Summit held in New Delhi, the capital of India, the final text could not be published due to differences of opinion on Ukraine. The meeting was a preparation..Read more

• What is the point of the debate over the origins of Covid-19?

  The new assessment of the U.S. Department of Energy, which made headlines in the press, is that the Covid-19 virus may have "leaked from a laboratory". Although this assessment is at a 'low confidenc..Read more

• What’s behind China’s Ukraine ‘peace plan’?

  U.S. officials have warned Beijing by leaking to the media that China is considering giving military aid to Russia, including heavy weapons, kamikaze drones, and other weapons. Biden's administration..Read more

• Biden, Putin saber rattling again

  President Biden's historic trip to Kyiv was intended to demonstrate continued American support and determination on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion. The secret visit, which required a 1..Read more

• The reconstruction phase will be a test of international solidarity

  Although only two weeks have passed since the February 6 earthquakes, two additional earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.4 and 5.8 in Hatay reminded us how long this struggle would be. Despite the giga..Read more

• Catastrophe, Fortitude and Superhuman Effort

  It is not possible to describe the extent of the disaster in the earthquake zone. What we saw during our two-day visit to the region with the organization of the Times of Türkiye showed the vast sco..Read more

• Spy Balloons: A new chapter in the US-China intelligence crisis

  For about two weeks, the American public has been busy with China's "spy" balloon, which has been spotted over the country's airspace. The balloon, which topped the agenda, was watched with the naked..Read more

• Türkiye earthquake and international aid

  Unfortunately, Türkiye faced a great disaster. The fact that such a severe earthquake swept the country in winter conditions and at a time when everyone was sleeping in the morning caused images tha..Read more

• Turkey will take years to recover from the earthquake. The world must help

  Turkey's struggle to heal from this calamity is only just beginning, while the country faces the massive task of preparing for future disasters. A historic challenge faces Turkey in the wake o..Read more

• Q&A: Turkish Foreign Minister’s Visit to Washington

  What is the background and significance of the Turkish foreign minister’s visit to Washington? What are the differences and similarities between the two countries’ Ukraine policies? Will the U.S...Read more

• Biden’s visit to Middle East offers no new strategy

  US President Joe Biden's visit to the Middle East reassures regional allies of continued engagement, but it is unlikely to mobilize them around US goals US President Joe Biden’s visit to the Mid..Read more

• US has no vision to challenge regional dynamics

  Biden’s visit to the Middle East comes at a time when regional actors are reaching out to each other to reconcile their differences. The trip is unlikely to change the broader US retrenchment ..Read more

• Understanding Türkiye’s position on NATO enlargement

  Türkiye's reservations against Finland and Sweden's membership emanate from Ankara's long-standing frustration over Western tolerance and support for the PKK/YPG As we fast approach the NATO Summ..Read more

• The West must support Turkiye’s Ukraine diplomacy

  Russian invasion of Ukraine has mobilized NATO and the Western alliance, and it is finally creating a new conversation about the future of regional security arrangements The Russian invasion of Uk..Read more

• ‘America is back’: Has Biden restored US foreign policy after 1 year in office?

  Joe Biden, who emerged triumphant from the November 2020 elections, which took place in one of the most critical periods in American political history and witnessed firsts in many respects, had to fa..Read more

• Turkey-UAE: Why MBZ’s visit could mark the start of a new era

  The recent visit by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) to Turkey highlights the ongoing recalibration of Ankara’s foreign policy in the Middle East. Turkey and the UAE have been..Read more

• US-Turkey: Could F-16 deal revive relations?

  This article was first published in Middle East Eye on October 22, 2021 Ahead of a tentative meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Joe Biden at the G20 summ..Read more

• US-Turkey ties: Repairing the relationship must start in Syria

  A US failure to engage Ankara on a meaningful level will worsen humanitarian suffering, destabilize the region and deepen frictions within NATO The Syria conflict has created a humanitarian catast..Read more

• Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean: Maritime Disputes and Geopolitical Competition

  Recent tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have multiple drivers including the race for exploitation of energy resources, long-standing maritime disputes, and the broader geopolitical competition b..Read more

• Trump’s Jerusalem Move

  Download the Book for Free This critically important book includes chapters both contextualizing and discussing the U.S. administration’s Jerusalem declaration in great detail. Various..Read more

• A New Era For Turkey-US Ties?: Interview With TRT World

  ..Read more

• US-Iran Tensions: Trump Seeks a Deal of His Own

  In the short and medium term, the interplay between Trump’s need for a deal on his own terms and Iran’s capacity to sustain the economic and political fallout from the U.S. maximum pressure campa..Read more

• Resolving the S-400 Standoff

  The U.S.-Turkey relationship is up for renewed tensions in the coming months as a result of the pending S-400 air defense system purchase from Russia. The U.S. Congress has introduced several legisla..Read more

• Ending the Confusion over U.S. Withdrawal from Syria

  Wall Street Journal reported over the weekend that the U.S. was planning to leave behind around 1,000 American soldiers after its withdrawal from Syria. The report was quickly denied by Gen..Read more

• Is the US Going to Withdraw from Syria or Not?

  The advance of the U.S. supported YPG-led SDF forces seems to have slowed down although President Trump had announced that it was a matter of a week before the last patch of territory in Daesh hand..Read more

• A Safe Zone in Northern Syria is a Must for Turkey

  Turkey has long called for the establishment of some sort of a safe zone in Syria over the course of the conflict. Such calls were primarily aimed at preventing regime violence against civilians and ..Read more

• Protecting the YPG Should not be a Goal of the US Withdrawal

  The debate on the U.S. withdrawal from Syria suffers from a couple of frequently repeated arguments that do not reflect the realities of the conflict, especially in northern Syria. Some argue that th..Read more

• Taking Stock of the Syria Withdrawal Decision

  The Syria withdrawal decision continues to stir a highly politicized debate among foreign policy professionals, including former and current government officials. Several arguments are made against t..Read more

• Another Bumpy Week in US-Turkey Relations

  President Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton’s visit to Ankara ended up causing more controversy than creating a common ground to work toward a serious strategy. In a previous col..Read more

• US-Turkey Cooperation in Syria Requires Serious Strategy

  President Trump’s seemingly abrupt decision to pull out of Syria has drawn a lot of criticism from the U.S. media as well as unnamed sources from within the U.S. military. Critics of a quick withdra..Read more

• Can the US have its Cake and Eat it too in Syria?

  The U.S. wants to cooperate with Turkey on all issues related to the Syrian conflict and sees it as critical to end the civil war. The U.S. Syria envoy James Jeffrey points to the Manbij agreement as ..Read more

• The G20 Summit: A Lack of Leadership and Purpose

  The G20 summit in Argentina ended with no major breakthrough or a breakdown but that is not good news for the pressing global challenges. From climate change to international terrorism and from civ..Read more

• Walking Through the Minefields in the US-Turkey Relationship

  The U.S.-Turkey relationship is going through interesting times, as both allies are willing to work through their differences despite serious disagreements over a host of issues. Turkey has been press..Read more

• Trump and the New House (of Cards)

  The last season of the much-acclaimed House of Cards features the story of the first woman American president Claire Underwood (Hale). The storyline is quite a bit of a commentary on the current debat..Read more

• The Khashoggi Affair Ushers in a New Era in the Region

  The Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s heinous murder in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has led to an international outcry against Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. The ambitious a..Read more

• Turkey-US Relations Post-Brunson

  In the first year of President Trump’s tenure, Turkish-American relations went through what we can call a period of “sizing up,” as hopes for a new beginning were somewhat moderated by strategic..Read more

• What are the Implications of America’s New Syria Policy for Turkey?

  The disagreement over the control and status of the Syrian town of Manbij has been a symbol of the strategic differences between the U.S. and Turkey’s Syria policies for a while now. Turkey’s succ..Read more

• Towards a New International System Without US Leadership

  There has been a lot of debate about the current U.S. unwillingness to lead the liberal international order it created after World War II. The Obama administration already displayed signs of war weari..Read more

• Can the Turkish-Russian Deal Save Idlib?

  The Turkish-Russian agreement arrived in Sochi in a meeting between President Erdogan and President Putin comes just in time to avert a major humanitarian crisis. The agreement is to create a demilita..Read more

• Idlib and the Implications of a Shifting US Policy on Syria

  Turkey has been the most vocal critic of the seemingly impending military assault against Idlib by the Assad regime. Turkey has serious concerns about the strategic and humanitarian consequences of a ..Read more

• Towards the End in the Syrian Civil War?

  The Syrian Civil War, which has been raging for more than seven years, is entering a new phase, as the Assad regime is threatening to take over Idlib with Russian air support. This may very well be th..Read more

• Turkey’s strategic interests in Idlib

  Turkey has been taking direct action in northwestern Syria in order to protect a variety of significant interests for several years now. Since March, Ankara has been working to build camps with a capa..Read more

• Turkey-US relations as the latest victim of Trumpian foreign policymaking

  Turkey-U.S. relations are at a new low and it should not come as surprise to anyone that Trumpian foreign policymaking has a lot to do with it. It was less than a month ago that President Trump snubbe..Read more