Is Israel’s war in the region in America’s interest?

Israel sought to turn Hamas’s October 7 attack into an opportunity to cement absolute freedom of action across the Middle East. For the past two years, it has pursued what amounts to genocide in Gaza and an aggressive settlement drive in the West Bank to transform its occupation of Palestine into a final conquest. With U.S. sponsorship and support, Israel has updated the rules of engagement for its regional war. Now, beyond Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Yemen, it is trying to normalize the use of hard power even against Qatar.

The inability of these states to deliver a deterrent response—shielded as Israel is by U.S. protection—has created a new reality for regional power dynamics and international law. Israel’s push to secure the “right” to strike any target, anywhere, at any time not only tramples on national sovereignty and legal norms but also undermines its primary patron, the United States. The sight of both regional powers and Washington appearing powerless in the face of Israeli aggression is an irony without precedent.

Why Target Qatar?

Qatar, which hosts America’s largest military base in the Middle East, has played a critical role in negotiations with Hamas since October 7. Despite frequent criticism in the U.S. media by pro-Israel figures for allowing Hamas’s political bureau to operate on its soil, Qatar has steadily strengthened its ties with Washington since Trump’s first term. It pledged trillions in investments and even gifted a $400 million jet to President Trump, presenting itself as a trusted mediator on many regional issues.

Doha also hosted the Taliban talks that enabled a managed U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Its shuttle diplomacy over hostage exchanges and ceasefire talks with Hamas has aimed to find a lasting resolution—only to be “rewarded” with an Israeli strike. That attack damages America’s credibility. Qatar, theoretically under a U.S. security umbrella by hosting Al Udeid Air Base, has now been shown to be vulnerable to Tel Aviv’s choices, suggesting that Washington’s ability to protect its allies depends on Israeli approval. The strike also proved again that Netanyahu’s government has never negotiated in good faith over hostages or a ceasefire.

Israel’s New Rules of Engagement and the Legitimacy Crisis

After October 7, Netanyahu’s government believed it had found an opening to crush Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. It expanded its long-running shadow war with Iran to include Iran’s regional proxies and declared that Hamas should feel unsafe anywhere. Each time it felt pressure at home, Israel escalated abroad—into Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Yemen—drawing Washington deeper into its conflicts. Though the U.S. has resisted entering another Middle East war, it has been dragged to the brink of military confrontation with Iran, sparking unease even among Trump’s base. The attack on Qatar makes clear that U.S. authority as a regional stabilizer is being eroded by Israel’s actions.

Israel’s arbitrary and unlawful reshaping of military engagement rules may look like tactical success, but it has deepened its political legitimacy crisis to historic levels. Having normalized ethnic cleansing, genocide, and annexation as tools of statecraft, Israel now undermines America’s ability to guarantee security for its allies. Its legitimacy crisis extends beyond the Arab world—it is unfolding in Western capitals too. Israel refuses to acknowledge that brute force cannot create a sustainable system in the medium or long term. By perpetuating instability and endless war, it weakens the very modern nation-state project it claims to defend, while undercutting Washington’s efforts to check Chinese or Russian influence.

Pushing countries like Qatar toward alternative alignments clearly runs counter to U.S. interests. Israel’s occupation and war policies, long a glaring sign of dysfunction in the international system and U.S. politics, are no longer just a Middle East issue. By alienating Western publics and making Western politicians look ineffective, Israel deepens the West’s legitimacy crisis. A state that has lost international legitimacy cannot guarantee lasting stability or peace. Unless Israel is restrained, it will continue to generate costs for both the international system and American strategy. Whether the Trump administration—or any U.S. leadership—has the will to put “America First” and check Israel’s actions will be decisive. A United States that breaks its promises, fails to protect allies, and ignores international norms when Israel is involved will only hasten its retreat from the region.

September 13, 2025 / Yeni Safak