• Publications
    • Books
    • Opinions
    • Analyses
    • Reports
  • Events
  • About
    • SETA DC
    • People
  • US-Türkiye Relations
  • Washington Gündemi
  • Contact
  • info@setadc.org
    202-223-9885
    1025 Connecticut Ave NW
    Suite 410
    Washington, DC 20036
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Opinions
    • Analyses
    • Reports
  • Events
  • About
    • SETA DC
    • People
  • US-Türkiye Relations
  • Washington Gündemi
  • Contact

The KRG referendum and the future of the region

Burhanettin Duran Posted On September 23, 2017
0
100 Views


Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Masoud Barzani insists on holding an independence referendum in northern Iraq. He repeatedly ignored warnings from Irbil’s two principal allies – Turkey and the United States. Meanwhile, Baghdad doubled down by threatening military action against Irbil and called for the cancellation of the referendum instead of its postponement. At this point, threats from Iran and the Hashd al-Shaabi forces around Kirkuk are no longer ignorable. In light of yesterday’s National Security Council (MGK) and Cabinet meetings, Turkey’s position, too, became clearer.


The Kurdish nationalists who believe that the time is right for a referendum seem unable to keep their ambitions under control


Needless to say, there will be efforts until the last minute to secure an agreement for postponement between Baghdad and Irbil. Barzani, however, has no intention to cash in on the opportunities that the anti-Daesh fight’s imminent end entails. At the very least, he would like to create a road map to independence that international players would be willing to accept.

By insisting on holding the independence referendum, the KRG president transformed his quest for an independent Kurdistan from an abstract idea or long-term goal to a concrete objective that he would like to accomplish over the next couple of years. He would like to put his name on the once-in-a-century opportunity. It would appear that he believes the Kurdish Spring to have reached its final stage and it is time to reap its benefits. Remember how experts started playing with the idea of a Kurdish Spring when it became clear that the Arab revolts brought with them winter as opposed to spring? The term was used to suggest that the revolts, began in late 2010, would serve the interests of Kurdish political players as opposed to Arabs. When former U.S. President Barack Obama left the Arab people to the mercy of the Gulf’s counter-revolutionary goals, Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi carried out a coup in Egypt. At the same time, civil war broke out in Libya, Yemen and Syria. And the fire of Daesh that was lit in Mosul turned Iraq and Syria into hell for the following three years.

Washington’s low-cost anti-Daesh strategy served the interests of Iran, Kurdish nationalist and Shiite militias. As peshmerga forces expanded their territories in Iraq, the U.S.-backed People’s Protection Units (YPG) militants formed cantons in northern Syria.

As the anti-Daesh struggle comes to an end, Barzani’s insistence on holding an independence referendum marks the beginning of the new stage in Syria and Iraq, which relates to the post-Daesh future of both countries. To be clear, the future looks grim, since three critical developments came together to form a new region-wide black hole.

First of all, the great powers, including the United States, lack a common post-Daesh Syria policy. President Donald Trump’s administration’s intention to contain and isolate Iran has not become policy either. At the same time, the region could give rise to new problems such as the Qatar crisis. To make matters worse, the international community is not prepared to stop the conflicts that Barzani’s push for independence could spark.

Secondly, regional powers do not want national borders to shift or their territorial integrity contested. Although they disagree on a range of other issues, they think along the same lines regarding this matter.

Finally, the Kurdish nationalists who believe that the time is right seem unable to keep their ambitions under control. Once the controversy surrounding Barzani is over, we will start talking about efforts by the PKK and YPG to form their own statelet.

From this perspective, it should be clear why Turkey has assumed a tough stance on Barzani’s referendum. Are the supporters of the KRG president’s push for independence, who claim that an independent Kurdistan would be closer to Turkey than Iran, aware that the region has entered a new period of conflict? Under the circumstances, is it realistic to think that the current players can peacefully go their own separate ways? How will the separation take place? According to which borders and based on what legal status to be given to the various ethnic groups? I am not sure if you are aware that the ambitions of Kurdish nationalists fuel the anger of Arab, Persian and Turkish nationalists. Let’s make sure that what they think is some kind of spring is not actually a winter marred with more pain and blood.

This article was first published in Daily Sabah on September 23, 2017.

Post Views: 100



  • Recent

    • 0x6778e479
      July 8, 2025
    • 0x3270c2af
      July 8, 2025
    • The End of the American Century? Interdependence, Soft...
      June 9, 2025
    • Trump-Netanyahu Relationship Takes a Turn for the Worse
      May 30, 2025
    • Why Is Trump Bypassing Israel?
      May 30, 2025
    • Israel’s plan to involve the United States in the occupation...
      May 30, 2025
    • Private Roundtable With Turkish Deputy FM Nuh Yılmaz
      May 20, 2025
    • “Beyond Alliance: Rethinking US-Türkiye Relations...
      May 20, 2025
    • Trump's first 100 days...
      May 5, 2025
    • Will the rare earth elements deal bring peace?
      May 5, 2025

  • Washington Gündemi

    • Anayasa Mahkemesi Trump Yanlısı Kararları Tartışılıyor
      July 12, 2025
    • Texas’taki Sel Felaketi Siyasetin Gündeminde
      July 12, 2025
    • Hamas-İsrail Ateşkes Görüşmeleri Yeniden Başladı
      July 12, 2025
    • Trump’tan BRICS’e Tehdit
      July 12, 2025
    • Büyük Güzel Yasa Tasarısı Kongre’den Geçti
      July 5, 2025
    • Musk-Trump Ateşkesi Sona Erdi 
      July 5, 2025
    • ABD, Ukrayna’ya Silah Yardımını Askıya Aldı
      July 5, 2025
    • Trump: İsrail Gazze’de Ateşkesi Kabul Etti
      July 5, 2025
    • New York’ta Mamdani'nin Zaferi
      June 28, 2025
    • ABD’nin İran’a Saldırısı Cumhuriyetçileri...
      June 28, 2025



Stay Updated


© Copyright 2018-2022 SETA Foundation at Washington DC
Press enter/return to begin your search