Will the rare earth elements deal bring peace?
The signing of a rare earth elements agreement between the United States and Ukraine could signal a slight easing of tensions in their bilateral relationship. Trump, who was elected on a promise to end the Ukraine war “within 24 hours,” had previously called on both Zelensky and Putin to begin peace talks. When his efforts didn’t yield results quickly, Trump began pressuring Zelensky by targeting the aid Ukraine receives from the U.S. He floated the idea of demanding repayment for past aid and turning future support into loans.
Faced with conditions like accepting Russia’s territorial gains, Zelensky found himself in a tough spot, particularly after a disastrous meeting at the White House. Yet despite all the crises and diplomatic setbacks, the signing of this rare earths agreement suggests that Ukraine has managed to reestablish a degree of stability in its relationship with Washington.
A Sign That U.S. Support Might Continue?
The deal’s inclusion of American support for Ukraine’s “security, prosperity, and reconstruction” marks the first official commitment from the Trump administration. Trump had once described Zelensky as “a great salesman” who managed to get everything he wanted from the U.S. Although he complained that the $350 billion in American aid should be repaid, the absence of any such clause in the agreement can be seen as a win for Ukraine.
However, the lack of any mention of security guarantees—something Zelensky has long sought as part of any peace deal—suggests that Washington is still unwilling to offer such assurances.
While the agreement does not include concrete military assistance or binding security commitments, it highlights a “strategic alignment” and American “support for Ukraine’s security,” indicating a deepening commercial partnership. As Trump previously stated, American companies operating rare earth development projects in Ukraine would effectively embed U.S. interests on the ground. He implied that the presence of these companies would deter Russia from targeting such sites, offering a kind of de facto security guarantee.
Still, it’s unlikely that U.S. firms will be quick to start extracting or processing rare earths in a war zone. At the very least, the agreement sends the message that the U.S. is not abandoning Ukraine—and that American support will continue in some form.
Will Russia Come to the Table?
Trump’s failure to secure the concessions he wanted from Putin, despite repeated calls and intense diplomatic efforts, played a role in the timing of the rare earths deal with Ukraine. Frustrated, Trump remarked that Putin might not really want peace and was just stalling. He even threatened to cripple Russia’s economy. But these threats had little impact. While Moscow has said it’s open to negotiations, Trump hasn’t been able to generate the kind of momentum he wanted.
Despite expressing his frustration over recent Russian offensives and saying that thousands of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers are dying needlessly each week, Trump hasn’t been able to exert meaningful pressure on Putin. While he might turn to sanctions or economic pressure next, it’s unclear how effective that would be. Trump is reluctant to adopt a full-on pressure strategy against Russia, as that would resemble Biden’s approach—a direction he’s keen to avoid.
Statements from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoy Jason Witkoff suggest that talks with Russia are not solely about Ukraine. Witkoff has said Putin sees a new opportunity to reset ties with the U.S., while Rubio hinted that both sides will have to make sacrifices for a Ukraine deal to materialize. Their remarks suggest that Washington is offering improved U.S.-Russia relations as a carrot in exchange for progress on Ukraine.
Trump’s recent comments that Ukraine’s insistence on reclaiming Crimea—lost during the Obama years—may be unrealistic, also fit this narrative. It’s increasingly clear that Trump does not believe in the efficacy of economic pressure on Russia or in restarting large-scale military aid to Ukraine.
Even if Washington manages to bring Putin to the negotiating table, it understands that securing a lasting deal would be a challenge—which is likely why it’s dangling the promise of better U.S.-Russia relations.
From Kyiv’s perspective, signing a rare earths agreement with the U.S. while Washington struggles to bring Russia to the table is still a positive step. But it’s hard to know how much progress is being made behind closed doors or what compromises are being discussed. Trump’s rhetoric suggests he believes Ukraine should give up on reclaiming Crimea and accept Russia’s current territorial gains.
In return, Russia would halt the war in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the promise of improved ties with Washington. Yet a durable, comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive. Putin still doesn’t recognize Ukraine as a fully independent state and continues to use unreasonable conditions as a way to buy time. While Trump arguably has the tools to pressure Putin into negotiations, he seems unwilling to use them.
That leaves Washington with one option: persuading Putin through diplomacy. But doing so would require Ukraine to make far more concessions than Russia—something that may be politically and morally difficult to accept. If direct negotiations fail, Trump may be forced—reluctantly—to revert to a more coercive approach.
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