Biden’s red line…

President Biden publicly revealed his disagreement with Netanyahu over the Gaza issue in his ‘red line’ statement over the weekend. Biden stated that a military operation into Gaza was a red line for Rafah that Netanyahu had planned. Facing heavy criticism from his own base for not calling for a ceasefire for a long time, Biden finally started to mention a ceasefire. On the other hand, by stating that he would never abandon Israel, Biden showed that his red line was not that strict. He also said that Netanyahu’s policies were harming Israel. While expressing his intention to continue financing defense systems like Iron Dome, which protect Israel, Biden also mentioned that they could not tolerate the deaths of another 30,000 Palestinians and urged Netanyahu to be careful about the deaths of innocent civilians. It is no coincidence that Biden is making such statements at this stage of his presidential campaign, as the message of the Democratic electorate in Palestine was clear after the primary results.

ELECTION PRESSURE

Netanyahu, by responding to Biden’s words, confirmed the existence of conflict between the two leaders. Netanyahu claimed that the majority of the Israeli people supported the Gaza policy and argued that the claim of harming Israeli interests was also wrong. Responding to Biden’s red line remarks, Netanyahu also stated that he also had a red line, which was not repeating October 7th. Biden’s visit to Israel after October 7th, hugging Netanyahu and then giving unconditional support had been the most encouraging factor for Israel’s Gaza operations. Moreover, the use of American weapons actually made the Biden administration complicit in the massacres. Just a few months ago, Biden said he doubted the accuracy of the death toll in Gaza, but now he has come to the point of saying that they cannot tolerate the deaths of another 30,000 Palestinians. It is clear that this transformation, indicating that Biden is beginning to see the truth, is thanks to internal opposition within the party and the results of the primaries.

Biden, who has not been able to hold rallies without encountering Palestinian protesters for some time now, received a serious warning from the Midwest states such as Michigan and Minnesota during the presidential candidate primary process. Initially hoping that the opposition to Palestine within the Democratic Party would somehow be forgotten over time, Biden now realizes that this will not be the case in the primaries, so he is trying to convey a different message about ceasefire and humanitarian aid. Pressures such as placing conditions on arms aid to Israel from within the Democratic Party, the White House pressuring Netanyahu for a ceasefire, ensuring unimpeded humanitarian aid to Gaza, and taking steps towards a two-state solution seem to have been effective. Biden’s change in rhetoric to directly confront Netanyahu demonstrates courage, but whether it will yield concrete results remains to be seen. It would not be realistic to expect serious sanctions from Washington if Netanyahu violates Biden’s red line.

WILL BIDEN HOLD ACCOUNTABLE?

Biden sent CIA Director Bill Burns to Tel Aviv for ceasefire efforts before Ramadan, but an agreement has not yet been reached. It was reported that the administration plans to establish a temporary port off the coast of Gaza to deliver humanitarian aid, but it is said that it will take weeks to build. Biden’s statement that Israel would ensure the security of this port actually shows how limited and feeble the humanitarian aid will be. It is impossible for Biden, who has not exerted pressure on Israel to ensure the entry of hundreds of trucks waiting to enter through the Rafah border, to deliver aid at the level needed by the Gazans despite Israel’s opposition. The administration is trying to gain leverage through ceasefire negotiations, a temporary port for humanitarian aid, and rhetorical pressure on Netanyahu, but everyone knows that Washington does not have the ability or desire to exert effective pressure on Tel Aviv. Therefore, it is not correct to expect Biden to hold Israel accountable or to change its policy by exerting pressure.

In Washington, there is talk of placing limits on providing American weapons if Israel crosses the red line. Senators like Bernie Sanders and Chris Murphy criticize sending arms and money support without considering human rights conditions. Murphy has gone so far as to say that Netanyahu is using this war to stay in power. Such statements from within the Democratic Party showing the extent of the reaction to Israel are apparently influencing Biden. It would be naive to think that Biden has just realized the severity of the situation in Gaza, where starvation deaths have begun. Being protested and called ‘Genocide Joe’ at every opportunity, and seeing that these protests also have electoral consequences, seems to have led Biden to draw a red line. However, Netanyahu has declared that he does not recognize this red line and has announced his own red line. In this case, if Israel attempts to enter Rafah and even Ramadan, it will test Biden’s patience and determination regarding the red line.