Türkiye’s diplomatic normalization efforts to yield key alliances

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to Egypt marked the completion of yet another stage in Türkiye’s normalization policy. The two countries thus agreed to brush aside their 12-year disagreement in an attempt to join forces anew. There is little sense in bringing up past statements to talk about concessions and U-turns.

From Türkiye’s perspective, this is about completing the normalization policy and adding one more link to the policy of developing strategic partnerships. At the same time, the rapprochement between Türkiye and Egypt represents a major development with potential implications for the regional balance of power in the Middle East – which entered a new stage due to the Gaza crisis.

In other words, the post-Arab revolt period has long ended and the regional powers, which witnessed the limits of tensions and conflict, adopted a new approach. Those countries, which once gathered around former U.S. President Donald Trump’s “orb,” have come to realize that their goal of containing Iran and even Türkiye was not achievable.

Biden’s agenda in Middle East

The Joe Biden administration came to power in January 2021 to end the “maximum pressure” policy toward Iran and launched a four-pronged normalization process in the Middle East between Qatar and the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) remaining members; Iran and Saudi Arabia; Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel and Egypt; and Israel and the Arab states.

One of the countries most capable of adapting to regional and global chaos, Türkiye’s normalization policy has arguably been more successful than others. It is difficult to say that relations among the GCC members have returned to the pre-blockade level. Meanwhile, China’s mediation efforts played a major role in the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Still, with the escalation in the Red Sea following the Gaza crisis, “Iranian proxies” remain a significant phenomenon for the Gulf states. Again, Israel’s massacres in Gaza undermined normalization between Tel Aviv and the Arab governments. Most recently, Riyadh identified the creation of a Palestinian state according to the 1967 borders as a precondition of normalization with Israel.

Türkiye, in turn, made significant progress toward improving its relations with many different nations. Its relationship with Greece improved so significantly that the two countries held a high-level cooperation meeting. The country also started a new chapter with the U.S. by approving Sweden’s NATO membership application and the F-16 deal. Meanwhile, the Turkish government repaired its relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia to enable talks about a strategic partnership.

Elevating Turkish-Egyptian ties

By visiting Cairo, Erdoğan moved yet another piece on the regional chessboard as he elevated the Turkish-Egyptian relationship to the level of high-level strategic partnership in the fields of energy, trade, investment, and defense. At the same time, Türkiye has been supporting Egypt vis-a-vis the Gaza crisis to help countries in the region concentrate on the Palestinian cause.

Syria remains the missing link in Ankara’s normalization policy since Damascus identified the retreat of Turkish troops from northern Syria as a precondition. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government bears responsibility for the backslide of normalization with Israel. Indeed, Israel remains the only country in the Middle East that goes against the normalization trend.

The bottom line is that Ankara transforms normalization into strategic partnerships to brace for the “age of chaos” that U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned against in a recent speech.

[Daily Sabah, February 19, 2024]